First: Sorry for not writing. Doing Youtube videos with high production values seems all consuming at times.
Second: I’m so grateful that I live in the rural part of a county and state that takes the virus seriously. It is wonderful to live in a place where masks and social distancing is done with a great deal of grace, politeness, and good humor.
I have heard many ridiculous claims, of course, as we all have. Those who oppose mask wearing have invented any number of excuses and a tremendous amount of pseudo-science.
One is that the mask can’t work because the virus is tiny in comparison to the pores in the mask. Of course, the tiny virus almost always floats in a sea of water which is easily stopped by the mask.
Another is that we shouldn’t wear masks because the scientists will only say that they “may” work. This statement is usually followed up with, “Don’t they KNOW?” Of course, careful scientists are working in the world of probabilities and facts, not the made up world of principles, tweets and stories.With the possible exception of classical physics, science is all about probability.
Another is the ridiculous idea that it was made in a lab in China. These viruses have come from all over: Ebola (the worst) in Africa, MERS in the middle east, and so on. A scientist quoted in the Smithsonian a while back estimates there are 850,000 potentially epizootic viruses out there. Poor people wandering the jungles and deserts in greater numbers, bring them back to us. There is no need to manufacture them.
Every action you take, good or bad, increases or decreases your chance of survival with covid19. Every action changes the odds--alters the probability of infection.
The probabilities multiply! Let me say this again (since no one else seems to be pointing it out). The probabilities multiply!
We can measure, model or estimate the odds of infection with any action. As an example of a very simple mathematical model, we can use the inverse square law to roughly estimate the odds for social distancing.
At one foot from an infected person, we assume 1 in 1 odds (a probability of 1) that infection will occur.
At two feet, then, the odds are 1 in 4; at three feet, 1 in 9; at 4 feet, 1 in 16; at 5, 1 in 25; and at 6, 1 in 36.
With this model, then, it is reasonably conservative to assume 1 in 10 odds for distances past 4 feet.
It is probably reasonable to estimate 1 in 4 odds for wearing a mask, and, therefore, 1 in 16 odds for both people wearing masks.
Hand washing might have 1 in 2 odds.
Suppose you “have” to go to some monumentally stupid party with a 1 in 10 chance of becoming infected. This might be a small indoor party with no distancing or masks and an infected guest.
Wearing a mask makes the 1 in 10 chance 1 in 40.
Staying at least 4 feet away and wearing a mask makes the 1 in 10 chance 1 in 400.
Staying at least 4 feet away, wearing a mask, and hand washing makes the chance of infection 1 in 800.
Just doing three of the recommended things changes the odds of infection from 1 in 10 to 1 in 800.
Add gloves, eye protection, frequent clothing changes, N95 mask, shoe cleaning, and avoiding stupid parties in the first place (almost always a cogent consideration) and it’s easy to see the chance of infection exceed one in a million
One additional observation:
I think much of the value of a mask is as a constant reminder that something serious and out of the ordinary is going on and we had better take precautions.
It’s very hard to stay in our normal rut of habits with a mask on, and that’s the point.